An Approach for Forecasting Oregon's Nearshore Groundfish Landings

Identification Information

Citation

Originator: Sampson, David B.

Publish Date: 2008

Online Link: None

BPA Project #:

Contact Information

Agency: Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife

Name: Cedric Cooney

Job Position: Natural Resources Data and Systems Manager

Telephone: 503-947-6094

E-Mail Address: cedric.x.cooney@odfw.oregon.gov

Description

Abstract: Most groundfish species along the US West Coast are subject to annual catch limits, set by the Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC) to prevent overfishing from occurring or to rebuild stocks considered to be in an overfished condition. Generally these coastwide limits are allocated to specific fishery sectors and to geographic regions. Fishery managers in Oregon are obliged to manage the pace of local fishing to conform to the limits determined by the PFMC. For fisheries operating primarily within state waters, the nearshore, the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) is authorized to impose "trip limits" to slow the rate of removals and to close fisheries before the end of the fishing year. A trip limit is a misnomer in that the limit is not applied to the landings of individual fishing trips but rather to a boat's cumulative landings during a two-month interval (January plus February being the first interval). The ODFW fishery managers' decisions to change trip limits or modify the length of the fishing season are guided by how much landed catch has accumulated relative to the annual allotment (e.g., Fig. 1). One approach that has been used to inform the decision is to forecast to the end of the year the catches that will occur each month and estimate if and when the projected cumulative landings will attain the limit. A forecast is derived from data from past years on the average landings per trip, the number of trips this year relative to past years, and estimates of how the number of trips will change each month during the remainder of the year (personal communication, Mark Karnowski, ODFW, Newport). One major need of the managers is to forecast how future landings will be affected by different trip limit constraints, to provide a basis for selecting a particular value for a new trip limit.

Purpose:

Time Period of Content:

Geographic Extent: Oregon

Status: Final

Use Constraints:

Format: PDF

Data Quality Information

Lineage-Source: Unpublished report to the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife Marine Resources Program

Data Information

No data information was supplied.

Entity and Attribute Information

Attributes Description: Field attribute information is available in the attached file(s).

Is a physical copy maintained for reference at Headquarters? Unknown